Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 10/9/15


USDA raised its forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016, compared with the September edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Beef
Beef production for 2015 is raised on larger forecast slaughter of fed cattle in the second half of 2015 and heavier carcass weights. The forecast for 2016 is raised as cattle slaughter and carcass weights in the first half are projected higher than last month.

Beef imports are unchanged for 2015 and 2016. Beef exports for 2015 and 2016 are lowered as demand is projected to remain generally weak.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month due to large supplies of market-ready cattle, weaker demand and competition from relatively large supplies of competing meats. Prices for steers in the fourth quarter are projected to be between $129 and $135 per hundredweight, down from $144.22 in the third quarter. In the first half of 2016, cattle prices are expected to continue to moderate, ranging from $131 to $141 per hundredweight in the first quarter, rising to $138 to $150 per hundredweight in the second quarter of 2016.

Pork
The pork production forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 also are raised. The pace of hog slaughter in the remainder of 2015 is expected to be higher. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs estimated less of a decline in sows farrowing during June-August than indicated in prior intentions and farrowing intentions into early 2016 support an increase in forecast pork production for 2016.
Pork export forecasts are unchanged, but a small increase is made to third-quarter 2015 imports based on recent trade data. Hog prices are raised for both 2015 and 2016 as demand has firmed.

Prices for barrows and gilts are projected to range from $46 to $48 per hundredweight in the fourth quarter 2015, and staying in that range in 2016’s first quarter ($47 to $51 per hundredweight) and second quarter ($50 to $54 per hundredweight).

Chicken
Broiler production is raised for 2015 as a larger third quarter level more than offsets a reduction for the fourth quarter, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced as broiler producers have slowed the pace of egg sets.

Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow global demand is expected to continue for in the remainder of the year and into 2016.

Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on relatively large broiler meat supplies.

Broiler prices are expected to range from 73 cents to 77 cents per pound in the fourth quarter, down from 83.7 cents in the third quarter and $1.04 in the second quarter, 2015. Looking ahead to 2016, USDA projects that broiler prices will bounce back slightly, to between 81 cents and 87 cents per pound in the first quarter, and 83 cents to 89 cents per pound in the second quarter.

Turkey
Turkey production for 2015 is lowered based on third-quarter production data; subsequent quarters through 2016 are unchanged.

Turkey prices are raised for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged from last month.
Turkey prices are projected to be between $1.31 and $1.37 per pound in the fourth quarter, dropping to $1.11 to $1.19 per pound in the first quarter of 2016, and $1.12 and $1.22 per pound in the second quarter next year.

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