Source: Lisa M.  Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 12/9/15


In its monthly World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates report, USDA lowered its forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016, as cattle marketings and broiler production are slow and hog production is holding steady. Higher weights are expected to partially offset the reduction in slaughter, especially in the beef category.

Beef
Beef production is lowered for 2015 due to a slower pace of fed cattle marketings and consequently, lower steer and heifer slaughter. The end of 2015 now is expected to end with 23.6 billion pounds of beef produced, down from 23.7 billion pounds projected in last month’s report.

However, as the pace of marketings is slower, carcass weights are expected to be heavier, providing a slight counterbalance to lower slaughter. For 2016, lower expected cattle placements during late 2015 will result in lower slaughter and beef production in mid-2016. However, there is a slight offset from higher expected carcass weights early in the year. Beef production for 2016 is projected to be 24.6 billion pounds, down from last month’s projection of 24.8 billion pounds.

Beef imports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced to reflect the pace to date and weakening prices for processing beef. Beef exports for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged.

Cattle and for 2015 are lowered from last month. A combination of weaker-than-expected packer demand and relatively large supplies of cattle and hogs are expected to pressure prices. Cattle prices are reduced for all of 2016, with price projections now ranging from $132 to $142 per hundredweight, down from $136-$147 last month.

Pork
Pork production is raised for 2015 on the pace of slaughter in November and early December, although no change is made to 2016’s outlook. USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Dec. 23, providing an indication of producers’ hog production intentions into 2016.

Pork imports are unchanged but export forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are reduced as the strength of the U.S. dollar is limiting export competitiveness.

Hog prices are lowered for 2015 and early 2016. Barrows and gilts are expected to bring between $47 and $49 per hundredweight in the first quarter, although the price in 2016 is expected to rise after that, to $50 to $53 per hundredweight.

Poultry
Broiler production is lowered for both 2015 and 2016 as hatchery data points to slower growth in broiler production.
Broiler and turkey exports for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are raised for 2015 on current price movements, but are unchanged for 2016. Broiler prices are now expected to fetch 89.9 cents per pound at the end of this year, up slightly from last month’s projection of 89.5 cents per pound.

Turkey prices for 2015 are reduced on current prices, but are unchanged for 2016. Turkeys are expected to fetch $1.16 per pound at the end of 2015, down from $1.17 per pound expected last month, and between $1.10 and $1.18 per pound next year.

For more stories, go to www.meatingplace.com.