Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 2/9/16


USDA raised its 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production from last month in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report as higher forecast pork and broiler production more than offsets reduced forecasts for beef and turkey.

Beef
USDA reduced its beef production forecast even as the agency’s Cattle report released Jan. 29 estimated that the cattle inventory continued to increase and pointed to a higher level of cattle outside feedlots on Jan. 1, 2016. Still, lower year-over placements in the fourth quarter of 2015 and only modest increases expected in first-half 2016 placements, marketings and fed cattle slaughter accounted for the reduced forecast.

USDA noted, however, that partly offsetting the lower fed cattle slaughter is higher expected cow slaughter and an increase in cattle carcass weights as the pace of marketings is slowed.

Cattle prices for 2016 are raised from last month on higher expected prices in the first quarter. Steers (5-area direct, all grades) are now forecast to average $133 to $142 per hundredweight, compared to a range of $132 to $142 a month ago.
Beef import and export forecasts for 2016 are unchanged from last month.

Pork
Pork production is raised as slaughter during January was above expectations.

Pork import and export forecasts for 2016 are unchanged from last month.

First quarter hog prices are lowered from last month as supplies are expected to support higher slaughter levels; however, the forecast of the annual price is unchanged at $46 to $49 per hundredweight for barrows and gilts.

Poultry
Broiler production is higher as recent hatchery data shows faster-than-expected growth in chicks placed and bird weights continue to increase.

The broiler export forecast is lowered as South Korea reinstated its ban on imports of uncooked U.S. poultry following the discovery of HPAI in Indiana in mid-January.

Broiler prices are lowered to a range of 85 cents to 90 cents per pound from last month’s range of 85 cents to 91 cents per pound on weaker prices to date.

Turkey production is reduced on hatchery data. Turkey exports are unchanged. The turkey price is unchanged at $1.10 to $1.18 per pound.  

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