Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 3/9/16


In its monthly World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA boosted its forecasts for total meat production in 2016, as higher forecasts for first-quarter broiler and turkey production more than offsets small reductions in beef and pork.

Beef
First-quarter beef production estimates are lowered due to the reduced pace of slaughter and lower carcass weights. The March estimate for full-year 2016 beef production is down slightly, to 24.6 billion pounds, compared with last month’s estimate of 24.6 billion pounds for the year.

Production is expected to pick up as the year goes on, however, with quarterly cattle production numbers rising to 6.3 billion pounds in the third quarter and 6.2 billion pounds in the fourth, up from 5.8 billion pounds in the first quarter of 2016.

Beef import and export figures have not changed from last month’s report: 2.8 billion pounds is expected to be imported in 2016, and 2.5 billion exported in the year. Cattle prices are expected to increase as the year goes on, to between $133 and $145 per hundredweight in the fourth quarter, up from $132 to $135 per hundredweight in the first quarter 2016.

Pork
Pork production is projected up for 2016, although the estimated forecast is almost unchanged from last month’s report at 25.0 billion pounds produced in the year. Analysts expected slightly lighter carcass weights in the pork market as the year unfolds.
Imports projections are up slightly for 2016 over 2015, with pork exports down a hair due to relatively large exportable supplies in the European Union and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar.

Hog price projections are holding steady at between $46 and $49 per hundredweight for the average full year for barrows and gilts, although the second and third quarter forecasts show a seasonal uptick in prices.

Poultry
Broiler production is higher for 2016 versus 2015, although estimates are essentially unchanged from last month’s projection of 40.0 billion pounds for the year. The pace of bird slaughter has been faster than had been anticipated at the beginning of the year. Turkey, meanwhile, is gaining ground in the poultry category, with an estimated 6.0 billion pounds produced in 2016, up from 5.6 billion pounds in all of 2015.

Broiler export and turkey export forecasts are lowered on slower-than-expected sales in January.
Broiler prices are lowered on current prices and expected higher production, to between 84 cents and 88 cents per pound, compared with 85 cents to 90 cents per pound in the February projection. The turkey price forecast is unchanged but the range is narrowed, to between $1.11 and $1.17 per pound, compared with between $1.10 and $1.18 per pound last month.

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