Source: Michael Fielding, MEATINGPLACE, 5/17/16


Expanded farrowings and continued strong increases in litter rates are expected to drive U.S. pork production in 2017 to nearly 26 billion pounds – a 2.6 percent increase over production this year, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Prices of live equivalent 51-52-percent lean hogs are expected to average $42-$46 per hundredweight in 2017. Those hog prices ? combined with 2016/2017 feed costs that are forecast to average $3.05-$3.65 per bushel for corn and $300-$340 per ton for soybean meal ? likely will challenge many hog producers in covering production costs for most of next year. Exports in 2017 are expected to be 5.3 billion pounds, about 2 percent above exports this year.

A weaker U.S. dollar is expected to enhance competitiveness of U.S. pork in foreign markets, particularly in Asia. Pork imports in 2017 are likely to be about the same as this year, 1.1 billion pounds, while live swine imports from Canada are expected to increase by almost 3 percent. However, imports from Canada will be limited by constraints on expansion, particularly in Western Canada.

Additionally, retail pork prices next year will be pressured by larger animal-protein supplies; not only of pork products, but of meats that compete with pork in domestic consumers’ food budgets. Beef and poultry production also are expected to increase in 2017.

Pork exports to China\Hong Kong continue to run well ahead of the same period last year.

China has increased imports this year to relieve high pork prices brought about by reduced domestic pork production. Chinese customs data indicate that most imported pork is sourced from the European Union, likely due favorable exchange rates and European production practices that prohibit ractopamine usage. With a recently lower-valued U.S. dollar, and increased ractopamine-free pork production, U.S. pork exports to China are increasing.

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