Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 6/20/16


According to the USDA’s weekly slaughter data, average cattle carcass dressed weights remain on a downward trend.
For the week ended May 28, cattle dressed weights were reported at 806 pounds, down 6 pounds from the previous week and 7 pounds below last year, according to USDA’s monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Commercial beef production forecasts for the second quarter of 2016 were lowered approximately 90 pounds as the increased pace of marketings implies cattle coming out of feedlots at lighter weights. Commercial beef production for the third and fourth quarters were also reduced 30 and 15 million pounds, respectively, on expectations of lighter cattle weights due to the higher feeding costs.

Nonetheless, the current forecast for total commercial beef production in 2016 is expected to remain approximately 4 percent higher than 2015 at 24.7 billion pounds. Commercial beef production in 2017 is projected to reach 25.8 billion pounds, up over 4 percent relative to 2016.

Beef exports lackluster through April
U.S. beef exports through April were 723 million pounds, fractionally lower than the same period last year.
Beef exports to Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong weakened during April, and shipments to Canada have remained consistently weak during the first 4 months.

Through April, beef exports to Canada were down 8 percent. Hong Kong remains a wild card going forward, as export sales have slowed in recent weeks. Mexico remains a strong market for U.S. beef exports, and the expectation of lower wholesale prices during the second half of the year could bolster additional demand.

Second-quarter beef exports were revised 15 million pounds lower on lackluster demand from major trading partners, but a good recovery in demand for U.S. beef is expected during the second half of the year.

Limited supplies of Australian beef should work to the advantage of the U.S., shifting demand for high-quality beef to U.S. suppliers. U.S. beef exports for 2016 are forecast at 2.4 billion pounds, up 8 percent from last year.

Imports continue to decline
Through April, U.S. beef imports have declined considerably as the volume of beef shipped from Oceania, Nicaragua, Brazil, and Uruguay more than offsets increases from both Canada and Mexico. For 2016, Australian cattle slaughter and beef production are expected to remain sharply lower than the previous year, significantly reducing the volume of beef available for export and thus limiting U.S. imports during the year.

U.S. beef imports for 2016 are forecast at nearly 2.9 billion pounds, down about 14 percent relative to 2015.

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