Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 7/19/16


Lower costs promise to boost output for both chicken and turkey, both at home and for export, USDA said in its monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Chicken: Preliminary production data for broilers in June was stronger than expected, leading the second-quarter projection to be revised up by 25 million pounds. The forecast for the third quarter was also revised up 25 million pounds, in part because feed cost expectations have abated from last month.

May exports of broiler meat were at the highest level since last June, and South Korea also recently ended its HPAI-related ban on fresh and frozen poultry imports from the United States. On this basis, export forecasts for broiler meat were raised 10 million pounds in the current quarter and 20 million pounds next quarter. Forecasted increases for 2017 are 25 million pounds in each of the first two quarters, and 20 million pounds in each of the last two.

Turkey: Meanwhile, turkey meat production in May was up 15 percent from the previous year. The sharp year-over-year increase in turkey meat production was partially due to last year’s Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that significantly diminished production, with the largest declines beginning in May 2015. As the sector continues to recover, there was a 14-percent increase in the number of birds slaughtered compared to the previous year, which contained one less slaughter day. This increase was further buttressed by a 1-percent rise in the average live weight of birds at slaughter.

The most recent turkey hatchery data shows that the number of eggs placed in incubators on the first of June totaled 29.9 million, an increase of 10 percent from the previous year. This is the third consecutive month with year-over-year growth in eggs in incubators, following negative growth for the previous 11 months.

In June, prices for whole frozen hens averaged $1.17 per pound, 4 percent higher than a year earlier, but whole bird prices are expected to be lower than last year in the second half of 2016, and for the holidays.

Turkey is doing particularly well in export markets. In May, turkey exports totaled 47 million pounds, 20 percent higher than the previous May. Shipments to Mexico, the largest market for U.S. turkey products was up 22 percent over the year earlier, comprising 63 percent of total U.S. turkey exports in May. The 4 million pounds shipped to Hong Kong were 240 percent higher than the previous May.

The 2016 forecast remains at 605 million pounds, 14 percent higher than in 2015. The 2017 forecast is unchanged at 670 million pounds.

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