Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 8/15/16


The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 has been reduced from last month’s projections as increased beef and turkey production is more than offset by lower forecast pork and broiler production, according to USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report for August.

Beef
Beef production was forecast higher on higher expected third-quarter steer and heifer slaughter. However, second quarter production was adjusted lower to reflect June production data. The beef import forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were raised in part due to expectations of increased imports from Brazil beginning in the later part of 2016. Beef exports for 2016 were lowered based on June trade data; no change was made to the 2017 forecast.

Pork
Pork production for 2016 was lowered on expectations of slightly lighter carcass weights for the remainder of the year. The agency made “small adjustments” to pork trade based on June data; but no change was made to the forecasts.

Poultry
Broiler production was lowered on slower expected growth in the fourth quarter. Turkey production was raised for 2016, largely on June production data. Broiler exports for 2016 were lowered due to a slower pace of exports in June; no change was made to 2017. Also, no change was made to turkey exports.

Production forecasts for 2017 in red meat and poultry were raised as lower forecast feed prices are expected to encourage increased production.

Meanwhile, cattle, hog and broiler prices for the second half of 2016 were reduced from last month on weakness in current prices. Prices for cattle, hogs and broilers for 2017 have been reduced from last month as production is forecast higher; however, the annual price range for cattle was unchanged. Turkey prices were raised for the third quarter of 2016 but are unchanged for 2017.

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