Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 10/12/16



USDA's corn outlook is for lower production, increased exports, reduced stocks, and higher prices, according to the October report on the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The agency lowered its forecast for overall red meat and poultry production in 2016, again, while indicating no change in projections for turkey production. For 2017, the total red meat and poultry product forecast was raised, primarily due to higher pork production. Projected soybean yield has been adjusted up slightly.

Corn
Corn production is forecast at 15.057 billion bushels, down 36 million from last month as a lower forecast yield more than offsets an increase in harvested area. Corn supplies for 2016/17 are down slightly to 16.845 billion bushels, as a lower crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report.

Exports are raised 50 million bushels, reflecting current U.S. export commitments that are well above a year ago. Corn ending stocks are down 63 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.

Brazil corn production is raised on higher area, based on the latest Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB) report indicating a forecast level of first crop corn area above prior expectations. Corn and barley production are lowered for the EU, while domestic feed demand and competitive world corn prices underpin larger projected imports. Russia barley production is down based on the latest government harvest reports.

Corn exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina, with larger projected supplies in the former and an expected increase in the relative competitiveness of both countries for the local marketing year that begins March 2017. Other large month-to-month increases in corn imports are forecast for Iran, Vietnam and Mexico. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are lowered 1.0 million tons, with the largest stock declines in Argentina and Ukraine. Global corn stocks are projected 2.7 million tons lower to 216.8 million, but are still record high.

Beef
Beef production for 2016 is raised on higher expected slaughter although carcass weights are reduced slightly. Beef production is raised based on expectations of higher first-quarter slaughter.

Beef import and export forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were raised as slightly larger supplies of beef in a number of exporting countries support higher imports and lower U.S. beef prices make the United States more competitive in world markets.

Pork
Pork production for 2016 is raised on the pace of third quarter slaughter. The pork export forecast for 2017 is raised on expectations of higher sales to Asia.

Poultry
Broiler production is lowered as recent production data points towards continued slow growth in bird weights and more moderate growth in production continuing from 2016. The turkey production forecast was unchanged.

Broiler and turkey export forecasts are unchanged for 2016 and 2017.
Cattle, hog, broiler, and turkey prices for the last quarter of 2016 are reduced from last month as supplies of product are large. For 2017, the continued large supplies of beef, pork, and broiler meat are expected to pressure prices through the year.

Soybeans
The soybean yield is projected at 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from the September forecast. Soybean supplies for 2016/17 are projected 70 million bushels above last month with slightly higher beginning stocks adding to higher production.
U.S. soybean exports for 2016/17 are projected at 2,025 million bushels, up 40 million with increased supplies. An offsetting reduction is forecast for Argentina soybean exports. With soybean crush unchanged, ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 395 million bushels, up 30 million from last month. The soybean price is projected at $8.30 to $9.80 per bushel.

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