Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 11/916


November’s U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed and industrial (FSI) use and slightly higher prices, according to the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

For 2016-2017, corn used for ethanol is projected 25 million bushels higher from October’s report, while non-ethanol FSI is raised 60 million bushels. With supply rising faster than use, ending stocks of corn are raised 83 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $3 to $3.60 per bushel, based on higher-than-expected observed early-season prices.

Corn production is forecast at 15.226 billion bushels, up 168 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel per acre increase in yield to 175.3 bushels per acre.

A detailed breakout of the corn FSI estimates is available at the Economic Research Service Feed Grains Database.

Beef
The 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is increased from last month as higher fourth quarter beef and pork production forecasts more than offset reductions in broiler and turkey production.

Beef production is increased on the pace of slaughter and heavier carcass weights. The increase in beef production reflects slaughter of cattle placed in late-2016 and early-2017 as well as slightly higher carcass weights.

The beef import forecast in 2016 is lowered due to expected tightness in supplies from Oceania. Beef exports are expected to decline modestly in 2016 based on recent trade data. Beef imports and exports are unchanged for 2017.

Cattle prices are forecast lower for the remainder of 2016 and for 2017. Large supplies of fed cattle are currently weighing on prices and are expected to carry into next year.

Pork
Pork production for 2016 is raised based on the current rate of slaughter, tempered by slower expected gains in carcass weights.

Hog prices are lowered for 2016 and early 2017 on supply pressure. However late-2017 prices are expected to reflect demand from new slaughter facilities.

U.S. pork imports for 2016 and 2017 were lowered as increases in domestic pork production and lower prices are expected to limit demand for imports. Pork exports in 2016 are lowered from last month on recent trade data. Meanwhile, exports are raised in 2017 on lower hog prices, which are expected to make U.S. product more competitive.

Poultry
Broiler production is lowered based on September slaughter data, and is lowered for 2017 from last month on slower second-half growth. Turkey production is reduced based on the pace of slaughter.

Broiler exports are raised for 2016 and 2017 on strong demand in a number of countries.
Broiler prices are lowered for 2016 and 2017 as supplies of broilers and competing meats pressure the markets.

For more stories, go to www.meatingplace.com.