Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 11/15/16


Post-election coverage prognosticating the ifs, ands or buts of President-elect Donald Trump’s agricultural policies center on uncertainty, but at least one document to emerge from the transition effort offers some more clarity.

A list of talking points created for Trump’s Agriculture Advisory Committee and obtained by Politico from “a source close to the transition” lays out several policy pledges.

Trump, according to the Politico report, will come out swinging to kill the Waters of the U.S. Rule; will work to eliminate the estate tax; and will “include farmers and ranchers in the process of determining the best possible immigration policies.”

More generally, the Trump camp mentions shifting back to conventional agriculture, being an “active participant” in authoring the next farm bill, and “fighting the so-called good food movement and undoing Obama-era agricultural and environmental policies.”
A new report by Rabobank, meanwhile, also tries to put a finger on the pulse of a Trump agricultural tenure. Short-term implications center around how the uncertainty over his presidency could create foreign currency fluctuations and affect U.S. exports. For the long-term, trade agreements, agricultural policy and labor will be the key areas affected by policy changes.

Rabobank said that America’s stature in the global agricultural export arena means that any changes Trump might make to trade agreements will not only affect global prices and trade dynamics but also U.S. farmer margins.

The bank also expects that Farm Bill 2018 will reflect Trump’s promises for reduced regulation, and if immigration laws are enforced more strictly that business owners in animal protein and food service operations could face labor shortages and pressured margins.

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