Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 11/25/16


On the basis of October and early November slaughter data, USDA raised its  forecast for fourth-quarter commercial pork production by 30 million pounds to just under 6.7 billion pounds, or 3 percent higher than a year ago, the agency reported in its November Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Preliminary slaughter data for the first weeks of November point to slaughter at or near 2.5 million head.

The fourth quarter of the calendar year is typically the one in which pork production achieves its maximum. This is largely due to biology. Sow fertility rates tend to be higher during periods of cooler temperatures than during hot summer months.

Hogs that are being slaughtered and processed right now—the fourth quarter of the calendar year—were largely born in the March-May quarter, meaning that sows farrowing in these quarters were bred in cooler months, anywhere from late 2015 through late winter 2016. It follows, then, that fourth-quarter hog slaughter usually accounts for more than a quarter of annual slaughter.

Since the summer, weekly hog slaughter has been running generally above 2015 levels, with several recent weeks in excess of 2.5 million head.

Estimated weekly slaughter for the week ending October 22 was 2.533 million head, the highest weekly slaughter since the series began in 1955.

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