Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 11/25/16



Third-quarter 2016 broiler production was slightly lower than expected, in part because average slaughter weights remained beneath year-earlier levels in September, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Chicken exports in September were the highest since March 2015, with exports to Cuba were the second highest on record, eclipsed only by shipments in January 2008, and have been trending generally upward since April.1.

Exports to Angola were the highest since November 2014. The fourth-quarter forecast for total broiler exports was raised 40 million pounds, and the 2017 export forecast was raised 30 million pounds.

The forecast for 2016 year-ending broiler stocks was lowered 40 million pounds as the higher export forecast was expected to dampen the seasonal increase in broiler stocks in cold storage. No change was made to USDA’s 2017 ending stocks forecast.

Weekly prices for whole broilers (national composite) have remained below year-earlier levels since mid-September. The fourth-quarter forecast was reduced to 72-74 cents per pound, and the 2017 forecast was lowered to 77-84 cents per pound as large supplies of meat were expected to contribute to downward pressure on broiler prices.

These lower prices would likely impact 2017 producer profitability, therefore USDA lowered its production forecast by 100 million pounds.

Turkeys
Preliminary weekly production of turkey for the 4 weeks through October 29 was below year-earlier levels, leading USDA to reduce its fourth-quarter forecast by 30 million pounds.

Whole hen prices have remained relatively strong but have shown a smaller-than-typical seasonal increase in recent weeks.
The fourth-quarter forecast for frozen hen prices was lowered slightly to $1.18 to $1.22 cents per pound. While hen stocks in cold storage as of September 30 were down from a year earlier, stocks of toms were at the highest September level since 2013.

Turkey exports in September were strong compared to 2015 when trade was affected by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, but remained well below September levels from 2012 to 2014.

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