Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 12/9/16


USDA raised its 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production from last month in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, as higher forecast beef production offsets lower poultry and pork production.

Beef
USDA raised its beef production forecast for 2016 based on the current pace of slaughter. Beef production is forecast lower in 2017, however, reflecting lower expectations for cattle placements in late 2016. However, the ensuing decline in fed cattle slaughter will be slightly offset by higher expected cow slaughter.

The beef import forecast was raised for 2016 based on the recent pace of trade, but left unchanged for 2017. Beef exports were raised for 2016, reflecting stronger export demand, but also unchanged for 2017.

Cattle prices were forecast higher for the remainder of 2016 and through the first half of 2017 as demand has improved and is expected to carry into early 2017.

Pork
USDA reduced its pork production forecast due to counter-seasonally lighter-than-expected carcass weights this quarter.
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Dec. 23, which will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions into the first part of 2017.

Pork imports were lowered for 2016 and 2017 on recent trade data and the expected impact of forecast growth in production on import demand. Forecast pork exports for 2017 were unchanged.

Hog price forecasts were unchanged.

Poultry
Broiler and turkey production was forecast lower, largely reflecting the slower pace of slaughter in the fourth quarter. For 2017, broiler production forecasts were unchanged from the previous month, but turkey production forecasts were lowered.

The turkey production forecast was lowered from the previous month as a slower pace of slaughter is expected in the second half of the year.

Broiler and turkey export forecasts were unchanged for 2016 and 2017.

Broiler prices were raised for 2016 and 2017 on recent price strength. Turkey prices were lowered in 2016 and 2017 on weaker-than-expected demand.

USDA raises feed price projections
USDA raised its U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 to a range of $8.70 to $10.20 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range, as early-season soybean exports have been sharply higher than a year ago.

The agency left its soybean meal price forecast unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton.

USDA raised its corn price forecast by 5 cents per bushel to a range of $3.05 to $3.65 on continued higher-than-expected early season prices.

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