Source: POLITICO'S MORNING AGRICULTURE, 6/18/18

One important aspect of President Donald Trump's Friday announcement that $50 billion in Chinese goods will soon face 25 percent tariffs was the timing of China's response — immediate, and in the form of a statement that went live in the wee hours of Saturday morning in Beijing. China didn't waste any time saying that its retaliation would be equal in impact to the U.S. duties and imposed on the same schedule as Trump's actions. The first wave of U.S. tariffs, on $34 billion in goods, will start July 6, which leaves little time for China — assuming the two sides agree to resume trade talks — to make the bureaucracy-shaking changes needed to prevent the tariffs.

The reality for U.S. agriculture is that greater pain from retaliatory moves by China — Beijing has already hit back at Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs — almost looks like a given. Over the weekend, many a soybean farmer tried to make sense of their potential future losses, if a trade war with China unfolds and China retaliates against soybeans and other U.S. agricultural exports. While Brandon Wipf, who produces 1,200 to 1,300 acres of soybeans in South Dakota, sat in his tractor late last week, he told your host that the majority of his soybeans are exported to China because it's too difficult to reach other markets.

"We're not located on the Mississippi River," Wipf said. "So anything we export is going to go on a train over the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Northwest." Since it's too late in the season to grow anything else, he can only wait to see how bad things may get.

"Pretty much everything is planted at this point. What you've planted is what you're stuck with."

Reaction from the broader farming world: It's not just soybean farmers who are worried. Tom Sleight, president of the U.S. Grains Council, said in a statement that grain farmers "are concerned any tariff opens this market to our competitors, and locking out U.S. products doesn't mean trade stops — it means other partners will take our place." Americans for Farmers & Families, a pro-NAFTA coalition, said in a statement that with the prospect of a drop-off in business with China, "Farmers need the North American Free Trade Agreement — and even greater access to America's second- and third-largest trading partners — now more than ever."

Retaliation is also on the horizon from other countries angry at U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. As soon as Wednesday, the EU could impose tariffs on the U.S. designed to yield the most political pain — directed at Kentucky bourbon and Wisconsin cranberries, for example. India this past week also updated its list of proposed retaliatory tariffs, equaling roughly $240 million and covering 30 products, including almonds and apples.

Too soon for federal help: Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters Friday the agency has not decided on how it may assist farmers in the event of greater trade losses. "We've been talking about mitigation for several months," Perdue said. "But it's still too early to talk about mechanisms or quantification of that."

Speaking about NAFTA: Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said Friday that high-level talks between the U.S., Mexico and Canada will probably relaunch in July, a message that comes amid weeks of uncertainty over the future of the renegotiation.

"This negotiation remains standing. The ministers will meet again, very likely, starting in the month of July," Guajardo said at a Pacific Alliance meeting, Mexican newspaper Reforma reported.