Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 9/30/14

Old crop corn stocks in all positions on Sept. 1, 2014 totaled 1.24 billion bushels, up 50 percent from Sept. 1, 2013, according to USDA’s latest Grain Stocks report issued today.

Add this to the “new crop” corn farmers are just starting to harvest after a near perfect growing season in some key Midwest growing areas. Anecdotally, early harvest yields are high, some very high. Put this all together and you have a livestock producer’s dream: sharply lower corn prices.

USDA reported yesterday that for the month of September, farmers received on average $3.38 per bushel for their corn, down 25 percent from $3.63 in August and well below the $5.40 received during September 2013.

Farmers received just $2.83 per bushel for their corn at one Central Illinois grain elevator today. The price plunge is a far cry from the corn prices of recent years that peaked at $8 a bushel and only recently fell below $4 a bushel. Those years of high corn prices catapulted livestock cost of production and put some operators out of business.

However, agriculture is nothing if not cyclic and now all signs point to expansion in all animal proteins. Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report by nearly every measure of the herd now and expectations for near future growth came in higher than was expected.
While broiler production has increased only modestly (less than 2 percent) in 2014 due to some breeding issues, analysts expect it to increase nearly double that amount in 2015.

Cattle slaughter data since the beginning of August show heifer slaughter down nearly 11 percent and cow slaughter down nearly 17 percent as ranchers gear up to expand their herds.

Soybean stocks
Harvest cannot come fast enough for soybean supplies, another key feed ingredient.

USDA reported old crop soybeans stored in all positions on Sept. 1, 2014 totaled 92.0 million bushels, down 35 percent from Sept. 1, 2013. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2014 totaled 313 million bushels, up 6 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Farmers this year increased their soybean acreage, which should boost soybean supplies after harvest next month, also bringing prices down.

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