Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 10/19/16


A counter-seasonal decline in bird weights in August associated with “woody breast” issues and lower-than-expected weekly production in September prompted USDA to lower its third-quarter broiler production forecast.

In its Dairy, Livestock and Poultry report issued Tuesday, USDA said the agency reduced its forecast by 100 million pounds, which would mark the first year-over-year decline for any quarter since 2012.

August’s average broiler weight at slaughter saw a counter-seasonal decline as quality concerns associated with “woody breast” likely limited bird weights. The condition is associated with heavier birds, and companies are making efforts to avoid it by reducing weights. 

Broiler hatcheries have been hatching more broiler chicks, but that won’t compensate for the effect of lower-than-expected weights, USDA predicts.

Whole-broiler prices (national composite) started October weaker than last year and were below 71 cents per pound for the week ended Oct. 7. This contributed to a reduction of the fourth-quarter price forecast to 74-78 cents per pound. The 2017 price forecast was lowered to 78-85 cents per pound. These broiler prices are expected to weaken producer margins in late 2016 and early 2017 and to limit production growth.

The forecast for fourth-quarter production also was reduced, by 60 million pounds, and the 2017 forecast was reduced by 355 million pounds.

Broiler exports in August reached their highest level since March of 2015. Higher exports contributed to lower month-ending stocks of broiler meat for August, down 52 million pounds from July.

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